If you’re counting your pennies more than ever these days, you’re in good company.
America is getting really antsy about the economy.
A new survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows:
- Household inflation expectations ticking up.
- Unemployment and expectations for job losses are worsening.
- Hopes of finding a new job declining to a 12-year low.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Survey measures consumer expectations nationwide
The monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations measures how consumers:
- Expect overall inflation plus prices of food, gas, housing and education to behave.
- View job prospects and earnings growth.
- Look at future spending and access to credit.
Related: Update: Fed faces ‘ghost’ jobs shock before key interest-rate-cut decision
The August 2025 SCE was released Sept. 8.
Consumer inflation expectations tick up
- Inflation expectations ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2% at the one-year-ahead horizon in August. They were unchanged at the three-year- (3%) and five-year-ahead (2.9%) horizons.
- Inflation uncertainty — the uncertainty about future inflation — increased at the one- and three-year-ahead horizons and declined at the five-year mark.
- Home-price growth expectations were unchanged for a third month at 3%. Note: This has been moving in a narrow range, 3% to 3.3%, since August 2023.
- Price-change expectations for gasoline (3.9%) and food (5.5%) also were unchanged for a third month.
Job concerns show sharp rise
- The probability of finding a job if one lost a current job fell markedly, by 5.8 percentage points, to 44.9%, the lowest reading since June 2013. The decline was broad-based across age, education and income groups, but it was most pronounced for those with a high school education.
- One-year-ahead earnings-growth expectations slipped 0.1 percentage point to 2.5% in August, remaining below its 12-month average of 2.8%.
- Unemployment expectations, the probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now, increased by 1.7 percentage points to 39.1%.
- The perceived probability of losing a job in the next 12 months ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 14.5%.
- The probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 18.9%.
Households report credit and debt concerns
- The expected growth in household income remained unchanged for the second consecutive month at 2.9% in August.
- Household-spending-growth expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 5%.
- Perceptions of access to credit improved from a year ago, with a smaller share of households reporting it is harder to get credit.
- Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated somewhat, with a smaller share of respondents expecting it will be easier to obtain credit in the year ahead.
- The probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 0.8 percentage point to 13.1%.
Gap in current personal financial situations
- A larger share of households reported their financial situation had worsened and a smaller share of households reported their financial situations had improved.
- Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations became more dispersed.
- A larger share of households are expecting a worse financial situation, and an equally larger share of households are expecting a better financial situation in one year from now.
More about the SCE
The SCE is a national internet-based survey of some 1,300 heads of household.
- Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months.
- Roughly an equal number rotate in and out of the panel each month.
Related: Secretary Bessent has curt response to inflation worry
