Tropical Storm Melissa is gaining strength, threatening to evolve into a slow-moving hurricane capable of unleashing torrential rain and destructive winds across the Caribbean and potentially the U.S.
As of late Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center confirmed Melissa’s upgrade from a tropical rainstorm, reporting sustained winds near 50 mph and a westward movement at 14 mph.
Though Melissa is still a tropical storm, a hurricane watch has been issued for parts of Haiti, with a tropical storm watch in effect for Jamaica. If the storm continues to strengthen, the Southern part of the country could get a heavy dosing of rain by next week.
“The longer Melissa tracks to the west, the greater the chance of an impact on the U.S.,” warned AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
While the likelihood of a direct U.S. hit remains low, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva noted in their reporting that a shift into the Western Caribbean could change that outlook. Current models show Florida—specifically the southern Peninsula and the Keys—is at the highest risk if the storm continues its westward trajectory.
Recap of the hurricane season so far
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been active, with 13 storms reaching high enough intensity to be named, with four becoming hurricanes. Jerry would’ve made five, but it never made it out of the Tropical Storm phase.
The strongest thus far has been Hurricane Erin, which managed to reach Category 5 status and cause intense coastal flooding from the Carolinas to New Jersey. It was followed by Hurricane Gabrielle in mid-September, which reached Category 4 intensity before shifting out to sea. Both Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda reached Category 2 status in late September, before doing the same.
Thankfully, landfall impact in the U.S has been minimal, with storm activity remaining largely over the open Atlantic, passing well offshore of major land areas
The 2025 hurricane season was predicted to be ‘above normal’
The NOAA reaffirmed in its updated outlook that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season remains “above normal,” maintaining a 50% chance of higher-than-typical activity, down slightly from May’s 60% estimate.
The forecast called for 13–18 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph, of which five to nine could strengthen into hurricanes, and two to five may reach major hurricane status with winds topping 111 mph. As of now, we’re well within their predictions.
“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm in a NOAA report earlier this year.
A hurricane risk analysis by Cotality estimated that 33.1 million residential properties—valued at $11.7 trillion in reconstruction cost—face moderate or greater risk of hurricane-force wind damage. Florida, Texas, North Carolina, New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts top the list of states most vulnerable to these conditions.
How to prepare for a hurricane before it makes landfall
The best defense against a hurricane is preparation well before landfall.
“Ideally, you’d get hurricane-ready in the months leading up to the start of hurricane season on June 1st,” said Rachael Gauthier, meteorologist at the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety in Charlotte, NC. Stockpiling water, nonperishable foods, and a go-bag of vital documents, cash, and medications ensures readiness when forecasts intensify.
When storms approach, insurance companies often enact “binding restrictions,” temporarily freezing new policies or coverage increases. This makes securing hurricane coverage in advance essential.
“An emergency savings buffer is vital to being ready to cover unexpected costs,” advised Melanie Musson, insurance expert at Clearsurance.com. Homeowners should also create an evacuation plan and establish clear meeting points.
As a storm draws near, securing property becomes critical.
“A few days before incoming storms, it’s a good idea to board up windows, bring in outside items that could become flying projectiles in high winds, and stock up on extra fuel for generators and/or vehicles,” Gauthier added.
