The New Jersey governor’s race between Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) and former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R) is tied, according to a new poll.
A new Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey released on Thursday found both Sherrill and Ciattarelli receiving 43 percent, with a separate 11 percent undecided — underscoring how the race has tightened in the final stretch before the November election.
The poll, which was released days after the first debate between the two candidates, is sure to raise alarms for Democrats, who are looking to beat back a Republican effort to flip the governor’s mansion after President Trump made inroads in the state last year. It also comes despite Democrats seeing a number of high-profile special election victories in red states this year, most notably Iowa.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted in a press release that Sherrill performs better with women voters, while the former New Jersey assemblyman performs better among men.
“A stark gender divide also emerges among Garden State voters: women break for Sherrill by ten points, 46% to 36%, while men break for Ciattarelli by 12 points, 51% to 39%,” the Emerson College Polling executive director said. “Notably, women are over twice as likely to be undecided at 15% compared to 6% of men.”
Sherrill polls better among voters below the age of 50, while Ciattarelli performs better with those aged 50 years and older.
“Young voters, under 40, break for Sherrill by large margins, 58% to 24%,“ explained Kimball, adding, “The race tightens to seven points among voters in their 40s, with Sherrill leading 47% to 40%, then Ciattarelli flips the script among voters over 50, leading Sherrill 52% to 36% among this group.”
The Republican candidate has leaned in on the issue of affordability as he seeks to pull off an upset victory, focusing in particular on soaring electricity bills in the state.
“New Jersey Democrats blame utility companies for the cost of utilities at 36%, whereas
Republicans blame Governor Murphy at 36% — independents are split between the governor
(27%) and utility companies (23%),” Kimball said.
Other issues, such as property taxes and education, have also become flashpoints.
New Jersey is one of two states that will choose its next governor this fall, with the other state being Virginia. The New Jersey and Virginia elections will be seen as indicators for the general mood of the country and its attitudes toward both parties ahead of the 2026 midterms, though candidate quality will also play a key role.
The last gubernatorial race in New Jersey surprised many when Murphy only narrowly defeated Ciattarelli by 3 points in a state that has been reliably Democratic. Former Vice President Harris won the state by just over 6 points in November, though Trump performed better than expected.
Murphy has a disapproval rating of 44 percent, compared to 35 percent who approve of the job he’s doing and 21 percent who say they’re neutral or have no opinion. Compared to a similar poll done in May, Murphy had a 45 percent disapproval rating compared to a 40 percent approval rating and 15 percent saying they were neutral.
While Murphy’s approval rating may weigh on Sherrill’s race, she may also benefit from a more favorable political environment with Democrats out of power right now.
The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll was conducted between Sept. 22 and Sept. 23 with 935 somewhat likely and very likely New Jersey voters sampled. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
