Valuethinker wrote: Sat Oct 11, 2025 12:40 pm
JackoC wrote: Sat Oct 11, 2025 11:40 amThe point to begin with is a ‘we should’ type not ‘personal consumer issue’. Though I’ve no problem adding thoughts about it.
‘Keeping up’ with China in EV’s in terms of cost is already hopeless. And the EV battery industry from cell design/manufacture upstream is also already a Far East industry. Big factories ‘make’ and package EV batteries in US/West but the ‘technology partners’ for cell manufacture are almost always China/SK/Japan firms. Then many key elements of battery material and supply chain upstream of those factories are dominated by China alone, with poor prospects of that fundamentally changing at this point (a military supply chain not dependent on China is a big challenge but total civilian one far larger, Economist had a good article a while back, concluding that breaking China’s grip on upstream parts of EV battery supply chain is very unlikely).
Which is a bigger issue for the future of non-US rich country car makers than the US based ones. Because the non-US based ones (German in Europe mainly though not exclusively, along with Japan/SK) have exported a lot of cars made in their home market relative to home market volume. That business could be radically reduced by a flood of high quality low cost Chinese made EV’s in those markets (other than the US market where all makers including US based face protectionism issues for non-US sourced cars, but Chinese makers are highly likely to be largely banned, there are a few now but that’s likely to be reduced if anything). EU is a much bigger home market than Japan or ROK but trickier to protect it from China EV’s since many EU made cars are still sold in China. US makers have never seriously relied on overseas exports of cars made in the US (Middle East pickups are mainly Japanese…yeah like 40 yrs ago). And the US makers are in competitive equilibrium with other rich country makers in the huge US market, given even the preexisting elements of protection. They’re if anything in better position in that market with EV’s than ICE’s (due to Tesla). They will only face the China EV threat where they produce cars outside the US for markets that might not be effectively sealed off to China EV’s. In any case much higher fuel taxes in US (totally unrealistic) or EV subsidies/mandates (realistic though subject of much debate) are largely irrelevant to the future of US based car makers: they’ll adapt either way in the huge home market they’ll never be allowed to be driven from where the lion’s share of their profit is made. Although adapting to a steady if wasteful policy can be less inefficient than trying to adapt to one that whipsaws.
1. I got a bit lost in here as to what you are arguing? You seemed to be agreeing with me?
I agree that European car makers face a very great challenge. They are more dependent upon exports than the US ones. The US manufacturers defaulted to pickups and SUVs a long time ago, leaving the domestic car market, such as it is, to the Japanese and Korean transplants.
US makers have never seriously relied on overseas exports of cars made in the US (Middle East pickups are mainly Japanese…yeah like 40 yrs ago).
On this. You are wrong. Many of the places I used to visit in the Middle East have become too dangerous to do so, but it’s what you see on the street as of 10-15 years ago (or in Central Asia). I don’t know if the Koreans have slipped in since (I was surprised to find in Africa that they had not). Oh yes, you used to see mukhbarrat (“Militia” or secret police, really) driving around in big Mercedes. Businesspeople in Mercs & BMWs. But the ordinary car user? Japanese.
1. I’m arguing there’s no connection between ‘future of US car makers’ and EV subsidies and mandates aka ‘keeping up in EV’s’ which seemed to be the starting point of the exchange. One could imagine a sudden change in US public policy that wrongfooted US car makers much more than others, but it’s unlikely. Otherwise the US makers have a secure future serving a domestic market where it’s not realistic foreign makers would be allowed to run them out and scale is more than large enough to be reasonably competitive (except v China, which is very unlikely to be allowed in much). It’s basically different than smaller rich countries which had ‘own’ independent car makers but no long do (UK wasn’t the only one). Also different than non-US rich country makers now, much more vulnerable to being run out of markets they need by China.
2. Cutting down words may have made the last part unclear, sorry. Japanese cars are very prominent there *as they were 40 yrs ago*, IOW limited presence of cars made in the US in most overseas markets has long been of limited importance to US makers and isn’t important to their future.
Again main point, there’s basically no connection between US subsidies/mandates for EV’s and ‘future of the US car industry’. Potentially valid reasons for EV subsidy/mandates are other things.
