Morik wrote: Thu Sep 18, 2025 4:40 am
09/2025 updateSpending includes:
- All credit card & checking account spending transactions for the past 12 months (from the date this is posted, generally). This is collected by Fidelity Fullview.
- Medical & Dental premiums, group term life (tiny).
- MINUS any actual tax payments made (estimated taxes / any taxes paid in April for prior calendar year’s taxes).
- PLUS total taxes due for the calendar year this is being posted in. This includes federal income taxes, social security & medicare taxes, MA state income taxes, MA paid family leave contribution, and all capital gains taxes for federal & state. This takes into account the standard deduction for federal & the personal exemption for MA state, and forecasting total capital gains/dividends/qualified dividends for the year. Deducting appropriate things (medical/dental premiums, FSA, 403b contributions) for income taxes. Not deducting standard deduction nor 403b contributions when calculating SS & Medicare taxes.
This spending calculation is different than the one I used in prior updates — the prior updates did not include taxes nor medical/dental premiums. The medical/dental premiums being left out was an oversight on my part. Regarding taxes I have a full forecasting sheet now and am using that to calculate all taxes due. Previously I was using some very basic calculations to estimate take-home pay after taxes and using that to calculate expected portfolio withdrawal needs. Now instead I just use gross pay and add the more accurate tax numbers to our spending.
Spouse Paycheck: $110k
Credit Card Cashback: $3.5k
403b Match: $9k
Total non-portfolio income: $122.5k
Non-tax spending: $175k
Estimated total taxes for this calendar year: $22k.
Total spending: $197k
Current portfolio value: $3.17m. (~$600k taxable, ~$1.35m in 403b/Trad IRAs, ~$1.1m in Roth IRAs, ~$110k in HSA)
Portfolio withdrawal amount needed to cover total spending: $75k
withdrawal % of current portfolio value: 2.37%
Actual withdrawals may deviate from these calculations. E.g., maxing out a 0% APY credit card and carrying that balance until the 0% rate expires will defer actual withdrawal. The graph of portfolio value does reflect this.
Top graph represents how $100 invested at the start and never touched (all dividends reinvested) would have done with my exact investments/trades/asset allocation changes/etc.
Bottom graph takes into account all deposits/withdrawals and represents my actual portfolio value over time.
Financially things are going quite well. I did end up making a shift to 50% US 50% ex-US in my asset allocation back in April/May (from 60/40). I had been contemplating this for a while. I want to limit exposure to a single country to 40% of my portfolio. My domestic market gets a 25% boost to the cap. This boost would also apply if the US falls as a % of the world market. E.g., if the world market was 30% US 70% ex-US, I would boost US by 25% and hold 37.5% US, 62.5% ex-US.
I am guessing the outcome here is going to be lower returns for me (vs keeping more US%), but single-country risk is just too much of a spectre for me to not use a cap.
Exercise continues to be hit-and-miss with mostly miss. I’m still trying to work on this…
Diet-wise I’ve been trying to be healthier with mixed results. Haven’t been losing any weight really. Still trying to work on this too…
It is very easy to coast and not actually do anything for my health in terms of eating well and exercise…
My wife is still happy with our situation.
Excellent update! I got laid off before the summer and am generally following your path (DW continues to work).
What does your day look like? Mine is generally defined by exercise. Gym class/visit or bike ride etc. I’ve not been so successful with the diet. More work to do. Have lost 5-6 pounds, which feels good.
Appreciate this thread!
