It’s not often that the top free agent doesn’t get much attention from the team they’re departing but that might end up being the case this winter. Even amid an up-and-down season where he was dogged by injuries, Kyle Tucker was a key piece of the team that got the Cubs back into the NLDS for the first time since 2017. While Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer praised Tucker and suggested he’d be in contact with the outfielder’s camp this winter, virtually all reporting on the subject suggests the Cubs aren’t going to pursue a reunion in a serious manner.
The team’s focus appears to be on pitching, at least for the time being. They’ve already signed right-hander Phil Maton to help bolster their bullpen. After bringing southpaw Shota Imanaga back on a qualifying offer, they still figure to explore the market for top-of-the-rotation pitching options. A deal for someone like Michael King, Ranger Suarez, or Tatsuya Imai would certainly make sense for a team that ran out of pitching in October due to injuries to Cade Horton and Justin Steele. A trade also can’t be ruled out, with players like Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara, Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and MacKenzie Gore all expected to be at least somewhat available this winter.
Even as the focus appears to be on the top of the rotation, however, the void Tucker figures to leave in the lineup is undeniable. The superstar delivered his fifth consecutive season worth at least 4.0 fWAR in 2025 as he slashed .266/.377/.464 with a 136 wRC+ in 136 games. That sort of production would be very difficult to replace internally, even with talented youngsters like Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, and Kevin Alcantara knocking on the door of the majors. Ballesteros looked the best of the bunch in his cup of coffee with the big league club last year, hitting an impressive .298/.394/.474 across 66 trips to the plate in 20 games. Strong as that production was, however, it would be unreasonable to expect a 22-year-old rookie to replicate that over a full season.
Perhaps it would be understandable to roll the dice on those internal options if the Cubs had more certainty around the rest of the diamond, but the question marks are undeniable. Carson Kelly seems unlikely to recreate his career year at the plate (115 wRC+) from 2025 headed into his age-31 campaign. Matt Shaw began to show signs of life in the second half but his 93 wRC+ on the season was subpar. Dansby Swanson (99 wRC+) delivered his second consecutive below-average offensive season last year.
One big x-factor is Pete Crow-Armstrong. The budding superstar delivered a 30-30 season in 2025 and finished 9th in NL MVP voting off the back of a brilliant campaign, but his OPS dropped more than 200 points between the first half and the second half. Counting on the 23-year-old to lead the Cubs’ offense in place of Tucker next year would be a risky gamble. Also, Hoerner, Happ and Seiya Suzuki are slated for free agency next winter. Adding a reliable bat to the lineup could go a long way to preventing a step back headed into the 2027 season while also providing reinforcements for a 2026 team that will face lots of questions without Tucker in the fold.
The question, of course, becomes the team’s budget. The Cubs have been very hesitant to spend beyond the competitive balance tax for the past several years, treating it as a soft cap on spending. RosterResource projects them for a $197MM CBT figure in 2026 as things stand. The base threshold of the tax will be $244MM next year, giving them a bit more than $45MM of wiggle room.
With needs in the bullpen and the rotation, that could dry up in a hurry. Signing someone like Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, or Kyle Schwarber wouldn’t leave a ton of room for pitching additions. Even a less expensive addition like Kazuma Okamoto or Eugenio Suarez might be challenge to make work if the team is unwilling to spend beyond the first threshold of the luxury tax.
How do MLBTR readers think the Cubs will proceed with their offense headed into 2026? Will they hope an offensive nucleus of Crow-Armstrong, Suzuki, and Michael Busch will be enough to weather the loss of Tucker? Or will they bring in an impact hitter to improve the lineup? Have your say in the poll below:
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