Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

The Padres won 90 games and made the playoffs for a second straight season. They came up short in a tightly-contested Wild Card Series against the Cubs. Manager Mike Shildt retired a few days later, sending them on the hunt for the sixth full-time skipper of A.J. Preller’s tenure. That comes as they face the impending free agency of two of their top starters and their closer.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Manny Machado, 3B: $301MM through 2033 (including $35MM in remaining signing bonus payments)
• Fernando Tatis Jr., RF: $286MM through 2034
• Xander Bogaerts, SS: $200MM through 2033
• Jake Cronenworth, 2B: $60MM through 2030
• Nick Pivetta, RHP: $51MM through 2028 (can opt out after ’26 and ’27)
• Yu Darvish, RHP: $43MM through 2028
• Joe Musgrove, RHP: $40MM through 2027
• Yuki Matsui, LHP: $19.25MM through 2028 (can opt out after ’27)
• Robert Suarez, RHP: Can opt out of remaining two years and $16MM
• Wandy Peralta, LHP: Can opt out of remaining two years and $8.9MM (can also opt out after ’26)

Option Decisions

• RHP Robert Suarez can opt out of two years and $16MM
• Team, RHP Michael King have $15MM mutual option ($3.75MM buyout)
• LHP Wandy Peralta can opt out of two years and $8.9MM
• Team, C Elias Díaz hold $7MM mutual option ($2MM buyout)
• Team holds $6.5MM option on LF Ramón Laureano
• Team holds $5MM option on LHP Kyle Hart ($500K buyout)

2026 guarantees (assuming only Laureano and Peralta return): $154.95MM
Total future commitments (assuming only Laureano and Peralta return): $1.022 billion through 2034

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

• Adrian Morejon (5.140): $3.6MM
• Jason Adam (5.132): $6.8MM
• Gavin Sheets (4.076): $4.3MM
• JP Sears (3.065): $3.5MM
• Luis Campusano (3.003): $1MM
• Mason Miller (2.166): $3.4MM
• Freddy Fermin (2.165): $1.8MM

Non-tender candidates: Adam, Sears

Free Agents

• Dylan Cease, Michael King, Robert Suarez (assuming opt out), Ryan O’Hearn, Luis Arraez, Jose Iglesias, Elias Díaz, Martín Maldonado (retired), Nestor Cortes

Every offseason in San Diego features its share of twists. This year’s began within days of elimination. On October 9, The San Diego Union-Tribune reported that manager Mike Shildt and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller were expected back. Two days later, Shildt informed the team he was retiring. Subsequent reporting from The SDUT’s Kevin Acee pointed to discord between Shildt and his coaching staff.

It was the third consecutive managerial stint that ended in some measure of controversy. Jayce Tingler had seemingly lost the clubhouse by the time he was fired in 2021. Preller and Bob Melvin clashed to such an extent that the Padres allowed Melvin out of his contract during the 2023-24 offseason to take the same job with the division-rival Giants. Preller is still expected back for what’ll be his 12th full season leading baseball operations. This will be his fifth managerial search and he’s going into the final year of his contract. Reporting from Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic pointed to some tension between Preller and CEO Erik Greupner that raises questions about whether the Padres will extend Preller or let him work on a lame duck contract.

The managerial search is well underway and could be concluded within the next few days. Acee wrote last night that they’ve moved to the second round of interviews while narrowing their search to a group of finalists. Albert Pujols is the only candidate known to have gotten a second interview. Bench coach Brian Esposito and pitching coach Ruben Niebla each interviewed at least once. Cubs bench coach Ryan Flaherty, a former Padres staffer who appeared to be the runner-up when the position went to Shildt two years back, has also been speculated as a candidate. Obviously, the managerial hiring will shape how much of Shildt’s coaching staff returns.

It’d behoove the Padres to get their manager in place within the next week or so. They always have a lot to accomplish on the roster. This year is no exception, though most of their early option decisions are straightforward.

They’ll exercise their $6.5MM option on Ramón Laureano, who was fantastic after being acquired from the Orioles at the trade deadline. They’ll buy out lefty Kyle Hart and backup catcher Elias Díaz. Closer Robert Suarez will opt out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his contract, while Michael King has an easy call to decline his end of a $15MM mutual option in favor of a $3.75MM buyout.