During the 2025 NFL season, chaos has become the norm.
That's why Week 9 was odd. There was only one close game. Favorites won and covered in 11 of 13 games. It was remarkably calm.
Week 10 seemed familiar for this season, with upsets and many of the top teams going down in defeat. There was even a 13-point favorite to lose outright, as the Packers fell to the Panthers. Of the five most-bet sides in Week 9 at MGM, the Lions, Colts, Patriots and Chargers failed to cover. Only the 49ers came through for bettors. It was a wild week, which shouldn't be unexpected anymore.
Here are the five betting storylines going into NFL Week 10, with all odds from BetMGM:
Chiefs aren't favored to win AFC West
It's jarring to see anyone but the Chiefs favored to win the AFC West. They've won it nine seasons in a row, and were favored to win a 10th.
Kansas City might still win the division but that's not the favored outcome at BetMGM. The Denver Broncos, who now lead the Chiefs by two games in the division after they beat the Texans on Sunday and Kansas City lost at Buffalo, are atop the odds board. The Broncos are +125 with the Chiefs right behind at +130.
That's not a big gap, but it's notable because the Chiefs are not favored to win the division. And if the season ended today, they wouldn't be a wild-card team either. Kansas City is still -625 to make the playoffs.
Chiefs are favored to win the Super Bowl, though
How's this for an odd quirk: The Chiefs are not favored to win the AFC West but favored to win the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs are the favorites at +550, ahead of the Bills at +600. That's reflective of the state of the NFL this season. There are no great teams. Everyone has at least two losses already. A team will look great and a week or two later take an inexplicable loss. That's how we end up with a team that isn't favored to win its division atop the Super Bowl odds.
Yet, Patrick Mahomes isn't the MVP favorite
And there's one more Chiefs-related twist. The quarterback of the Super Bowl favorite isn't the MVP favorite. That would be Josh Allen.
The favorite flipped after Allen and the Bills beat the Chiefs 28-21 in a game that never felt that close. Allen is a significant +160 favorite. Mahomes is +350, in second place. Drake Maye (+450) and Matthew Stafford (+500) are the two others with odds shorter than 16-to-1.
There's still a long way to go in the race, but the list of candidates continues to get thinner.
Underdogs strike back
In Week 8, favorites had a historic run. That flipped on Sunday.
Those who expected it to be another chalky Sunday had a rough time. In the 11 Sunday games before the night game, favorites went just 3-8 against the spread. One win was a wild cover by the Bears (more on that in a moment). The 49ers and Rams, who were the biggest favorites of the week, were the other favorites to cover. Seattle did cover easily as a 3-point favorite on Sunday night at Washington, but then Arizona stuck back by winning outright as a 3.5-point underdog at Dallas on Monday night.
It has been a good season overall for favorites against the spread, but Sunday was a reminder that it's rarely as easy was it was in Week 8.
Was this a bad beat for Bengals bettors?
On one hand, anyone who had the Bengals at +2.5 shouldn't complain too much. It was clearly the wrong side for most of the game.
But when the Bengals scored, got an onside kick and scored again, all in less than a minute, Cincinnati backers had to feel good. The Bengals led 42-41. The only way the Bears could cover was to score a touchdown in the final 54 seconds, when all they needed was a field goal.
When the Bengals defense is involved, anything is possible.
The Bears got that touchdown. Colston Loveland broke through some pitiful tackle attempts on a deep catch, and broke free for a 58-yard touchdown. No Bengals defender could catch him to tackle him. Loveland didn't think to slide down so Chicago could kick a field goal with no time left. Anything that could have happened to save Bengals -2.5 bettors didn't happen.
Was it a bad beat? It's tough to feel too bad for Bengals bettors, but they had almost no chance to lose with 54 seconds left, and somehow did.
