Six weeks are in the books, which means six managers in your Yahoo Fantasy Guillotine Leagues presented by Liquid Death are no longer around. It’s a wicked game, isn’t it? Of course, it’s wickedly fun when you’re on the good side of things.
Every week I’ll examine the most common NFL players on those cut teams and try to figure out where the puck is headed. I will also offer some FAB advice ($1,000 cap is the Yahoo default), but please remember this area is highly context-sensitive and manager-specific.
Waiver strategy in Guillotine Leagues
If you’re new to this format, it’s critical to understand that waiver strategy is significantly different in the world of Guillotine Leagues.
You can often win a traditional fantasy league with modest help from the waiver wire, maybe a timely pickup or two. Sure, it’s great if you crush the market and land the right guys, and the best managers will always aim to be smart on the wire, but if your drafted team stays healthy and runs pure, some years that might be enough.
Immediate needs vs. playing the long game
In Guillotine Leagues, the eventual winning manager will have assembled a MONSTER team at the end of the year, a juggernaut, a Pro Bowl-type of roster. And the way you build that beast is usually by having resources all season — by not blowing the majority of your FAB on one tantalizing star. It’s pivotal that you understand that the waiver wire gets stronger and stronger every week in Guillotine Leagues, because the eliminated manager is coming from a smaller and smaller league size every week.
Unless you have a draft touched by the fantasy angels, you are unlikely to win a Guillotine League without a successful and careful waiver-wire strategy.
My Guillotine League strategy is centered on the concept that I like my squad early in the year and I am confident I can beat at least one team per week while the field of opponents is large. Therefore, while I will dip my toes into the FAB market in the early part of the season, my primary goal is to keep major reserves in play for later in the year, when bye weeks ramp up and injuries are more prevalent — and the pool of opponents is smaller (so advancing is harder, in theory). Again, I urge you to remember: the waiver wire in Guillotine Leagues gets stronger as the year gets deeper, a key reason to be judicious with your resources.
Not everyone will share my strategy, of course. If you want to chase major improvements and use the bulk of your FAB to load up quickly, then shoot your shot. Play the strategy you’re comfortable with. Just understand that my recommendations are predicated on being careful early, and if you prefer something more aggressive, you’ll have to jump the numbers up. You know your room better than an outsider does.
Understanding FAB recommendations
My weekly FAB recommendations will come in three buckets:
Proactive: This means you highly covet this player, perhaps might even need this player. I realize these bids might not win if someone in your league is lighting money on fire, but as described above, that’s often a short-sighted mistake in this format. With the bye weeks kicking in — you’ll notice multiple players coming off bye below — I might consider a proactive bid more than I did in September.
Reactive: This means you desire the player but the cost has to make sense for your short- or long-term strategy.
Keep Them Honest: This is a bid that is not designed to win, but might surprisingly land a player if your opponents are distracted by other talent available or unexpectedly passive that week. I often compare notes with other experienced Guillotine League players and we’re surprised at how often the Keep Them Honest bids actually win (this is also a portable strategy for regular season-long leagues; you never know when strange market behavior will come about).
When a first-round pick hits the waiver wire: Something in the $250-300 range is likely the target range for a no-doubt first-round player before we hit Halloween. While that won’t necessarily be high enough to win, that’s probably my theoretical max for a first-round talent this early in the year, but ultimately you have to make the call that’s right for you.
Finally, understand that the FAB recommendations are with the assumption that you won’t be making offers for every available player.
Week 6’s top-10 players on eliminated teams
1. Puka Nacua, WR, Rams (20%)
In-game injuries are a crusher in all fantasy formats and especially in Guillotine Leagues. Nacua might miss Week 7’s game in London, and then the Rams take a Week 8 bye. Wait-for-it players are always difficult to price in this format, but Nacua’s obvious upside has to be respected, too.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$200 proactive
-
$135 reactive
-
$50-70 keep them honest
2. Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets (14%)
Justin Fields lost his way against Denver’s nasty defense, and now Wilson is hurt to boot. The Jets have winnable games coming up, but getting the job done without their primary receiver will be a tall order. Wilson’s FAB situation is a smaller version of Nacua’s setup; we love the player, but it’s tricky to know how interested we should be in a wait-for-it commodity.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$100 proactive
-
$70 reactive
-
$20-30 keep them honest
3. Nico Collins, WR, Texans (14%)
It’s not Nico’s fault, the NFL scheduled the Texans for a Week 6 bye. The upcoming schedule is not particularly friendly — Collins doesn’t see a green-light matchup until Week 13 — and C.J. Stroud has been erratic, but there’s a too-big-to-fail vibe with Collins.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$135 proactive
-
$85 reactive
-
$35-45 keep them honest
4. Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams (14%)
He needs to squeeze every bit of his passing volume to get home in fantasy, given that Stafford offers nothing as a runner. Hitting his projection will be harder if Nacua misses any serious time; Stafford slides back into the streamer pile.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$40 proactive
-
$15 reactive
-
$3-5 keep them honest
5. Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings (13%)
Although just two NFL teams rested in Week 6, our receiver rooms felt the pinch of Collins and Jefferson not playing. Jefferson hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1, though he collected 22 targets in his last two starts. He’s still a very bankable piece, no matter what the Vikings are doing at quarterback. And now his bye is out of the way, a big key for Guillotine Leagues.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$210 proactive
-
$150 reactive
-
$95 keep them honest
6. Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks (13%)
Seattle continues to rotate Walker and Zach Charbonnet every week, capping the upside of both players. The only true fantasy star in this huddle is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Walker will be tested by the nasty Houston defense this week; Seattle then rests in Week 8.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$70 proactive
-
$35 reactive
-
$8-10 keep them honest
7. Bucky Irving, RB, Bucs (13%)
It’s remarkable what Baker Mayfield has been able to do in Tampa Bay despite so many key teammates getting hurt. The Bucs are already talking about Irving not being available for Week 7, making him a tricky call for any format that prioritizes immediate production.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$70 proactive
-
$35 reactive
-
$10-15 keep them honest
8. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens (13%)
The Ravens were mostly losing high-scoring games with Jackson, but they’ve hit the iceberg since, with two blowout losses. Hopefully a Week 7 bye is enough rest and Jackson (hamstring) can return in Week 8. Juicy matchups against the Bears and Dolphins come after the break.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$175 proactive
-
$120 reactive
-
$45-60 keep them honest
9. Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos (13%)
Sutton has given us four useful fantasy games and two washout games, which is par for the course given where he was drafted. The Giants and Cowboys are secondaries to attack the next two weeks.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$85 proactive
-
$45 reactive
-
$8-10 keep them honest
10. Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills (13%)
Kincaid had a limited practice week but ultimately was held out Monday due to his oblique injury. The Bills are coming off two straight losses, so Kincaid should be a featured player after the Week 7 bye.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$50 proactive
-
$25 reactive
-
$5-10 keep them honest
Bonus
11. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions (13%)
St. Brown came in under projection at Kansas City but even in a down game, he still caught nine short passes. Look for a return to his usual stats Monday night against Tampa Bay. Detroit then takes a Week 8 bye, before opening a second-half schedule that has plenty of favorable passing matchups.
FAB Recommendation:
-
$170 proactive
-
$120 reactive
-
$70-75 keep them honest
