According to an old Canadian joke, “The Americans are our best friends, whether we like it or not.”
That joke earns fewer laughs these days. A new survey by the reputable Canadian pollster Angus Reid finds that only 27 percent of Canadians regard the United States as a “friend” or “ally.” Almost half, 46 percent, regard the U.S. as a “potential threat” or “enemy.” More Canadians say they are concerned about the threats posed by the U.S. than they are about China (34 percent) or India (24 percent)—even though Indian nationals have been charged with allegedly assassinating a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil.
The facts of geography still bind the two countries, which continue to cooperate on objectives including protecting the Great Lakes and defending shared aerospace. The Canadian government has also joined talks to help realize President Donald Trump’s vision of a “Golden Dome” to protect against inbound nuclear missiles. But since that poll was conducted, Trump handily confirmed Canadian suspicions by slapping yet more tariffs on his neighbor and calling off planned trade talks. This president’s latest tantrum came after an anti-tariff ad released by the Ontario provincial government that featured an authentic clip of Ronald Reagan speaking out against tariffs.
Trump’s attacks on long-standing allies of the U.S., and particularly his aggression against Canada, are encouraging countries to distance themselves from American power. Notably, the U.S. lacks regional allies in its naval war against Venezuela—beyond some joint military exercises with Trinidad and Tobago. When Reagan invaded the Caribbean island of Grenada in 1983, he took care to supplement the U.S. force with troops from Jamaica, Barbados, and other Caribbean states. The U.S. did not need the extra firepower, but it did need and get the legitimacy that comes from acting multilaterally. Trump’s impetuous temper has ensured that this kind of legitimacy is now harder to come by.
[Read: The U.S. is preparing for war in Venezuela]
America has yet to appreciate the diplomatic transformation wrought by the second Trump administration. At a press conference on October 15 to condemn Chinese export controls on rare-earth metals and industrial magnets, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke on behalf of the U.S. “and our allies.” But those “allies” are slipping away, wary of a U.S. that now seems far more unpredictable than Beijing, if not yet quite as malign.
South Korea’s new president, Lee Jae Myung, broke with decades of precedent when he paid his first official foreign visit in August not to Washington, D.C., but to Japan. South Korea’s relationship with Japan has long been tormented by bitter memories of Japan’s occupation from 1910 to 1945, but old animosities were put aside to better meet the challenge of Trump’s second term.
Trump’s punitive tariffs on Vietnam are similarly encouraging this valuable U.S. trade and defense partner in the Indo-Pacific region to make deals elsewhere. Vietnam is now forging closer ties with China; state visits in April and September spurred various bilateral economic agreements. Not even a promise to fast-track a Trump-family golf complex near Hanoi shielded Vietnam from the president’s ire; his new “framework” for a trade pact with Vietnam keeps heavy tariffs in place.
[Michael McFaul: Trump is demolishing four pillars of American power]
Unlike these U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific, Canada cannot so easily pivot away. Yet Canadian politicians, even in the more U.S.-minded Conservative Party, are trying out a more anti-American message. The Conservative Party’s leader, Pierre Poilievre, whose MAGA-style rhetoric is believed to have cost him the federal election in April, is now criticizing the Liberal government of Prime Minister Mark Carney for losing the “tug of war for auto jobs” to Trump. The Carney government, in turn, is seeking more economic partners in Asia.
Despite its proximity to the U.S., Canada does have ways to hit back. The country can slap export taxes on products such as aluminum, nickel, potash, and electricity from Ontario and Quebec, which the U.S. could not easily source from elsewhere. Canada can also aggressively poach U.S. talent, hiring scientists who feel sidelined or disrespected, or who simply do not wish to see an immigrant spouse or parent confined to one of Trump’s cells. This is not an unreasonable fear: About 150 Canadians, including two toddlers, spent time in Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention from January through July.
A cycle of mutual retaliation serves no one. Donald Trump’s unprovoked and unceasing aggressions against Canada warn an astonished and worried world of the limits of diplomacy with such an irrational player. There is clearly little value in compromise with an ally who has become so dangerously mercurial.
