The AFC East brings us their two winless, bottom dwellers, to face off on Monday Night Football this week. These teams aren’t good, and if you aren’t a fan of either, playing some single game DFS is always a good way to give you some extra incentive to tune in.
The Dolphins are 2.5-point favorites at home in a game with a 44.5 point over/under. The Jets looked more than competent in Week 1 against what was supposed to be a top Steelers defense, but since that game we’ve seen that age has caught up to the Steelers. After that game, in which Justin Fields played great, the quarterback was an absolute disaster in Week 2 against the Bills. Toward the end of that matchup, Fields suffered a concussion, which pushed Tyrod Taylor to start in Week 3 against the Buccaneers. The Jets almost pulled out a victory there, but a huge special teams play was key to their almost comeback.
Taylor isn’t very good, but he at least didn’t meltdown like Fields did in Week 2. Fields will start this week against the Dolphins though and his upside in fantasy remains. But I also wouldn’t be super surprised if Taylor got the nod mid-game if Fields can’t move the ball. The thing is, it is difficult to NOT move the ball against this awful Dolphins defense.
On the other side of the field, Tua Tagovailoa has been bad. He ranks 26th in DVOA and 29th in EPA per drop-back. So far he’s thrown four interceptions and lost a fumble in three games and ranks 28th in explosive pass rate. This is a team that must have explosive plays to compete, and they are not getting them from the quarterback.
Below we will take a look at the best DFS plays for this Monday night showdown.
Captain’s Picks
De’Von Achane, RB, Dolphins (FLEX $13,600, CPT $20,400)
Truly, the bright spot in Miami has been stud running back De’Von Achane, who has caught 18 passes for 141 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 30 carries for 147 more yards, all in losing efforts. The Dolphins are actually favorites in this game and if they can get a lead, Achane will still get his receptions, but also plenty of rushing attempts. His upside isn’t as high on FanDuel, which scores receptions at .5 points as it is in DraftKings with their full point PPR, but his big play ability is what we’re looking for in a captain who takes over a game.
Justin Fields, QB, Jets (FLEX $11,000, CPT $16,500)
Fields was truly awful against the Bills in Week 2, but great against the Steelers in Week 1. Now he faces one of, if not the worst defense in the league. The Steelers aren’t as good as they have been, but they’re still better than the Dolphins by every metric. The Dolphins have already allowed three rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this year, and another one or two this week sounds about right. Fields also has also played well against the blitz, completing 55% of his passes for nine yards per attempts. While on the other side, the Dolphins have blitzed 40% of the time, but quarterbacks still have had the third-best clean pocket rate in the league against them. I could go on and on looking at how bad the Dolphins pass defense has been.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets (FLEX $12,000, CPT $18,000)
The Jets have three possible captains in Fields, Wilson and Breece Hall. There’s no other players with the upside we’re looking for. And I like all three as possibilities this week. The Dolphins defense is bad across the board, and teams can pick how they’d like to attack them without much resistance either way. We know Fields is going to run the ball and throw it to Wilson and both should be successful to an extent. Add in the Dolphins extreme blitz rate and Wilson’s target rate when blitzed, and I expect Wilson to continue his huge usage.
Value flex plays
Josh Reynolds, WR, Jets (FLEX $3,800, CPT $5,700)
Reynolds missed the last two games, but when healthy in Week 1 he played on 90% of the snaps. This week his deep receiver tendencies could pay off. We know Wilson is going to get plenty of targets, but they’ll try to get Reynolds deep on a few and that could pay off in this matchup.
Malik Washington, WR, Dolphins (FLEX $4,400, CPT $6,600)
Tyreek Hill, Jayden Waddle, and Achane command the bulk of the targets in Miami, but the team has tried to manufacture some touches for Washington, as he has six rushing attempts and 12 targets, mostly of the shorter variety. He has a low floor, but it is high enough for his price to roster.
Ollie Gordon, RB, Dolphins (FLEX $5,400, CPT $8,100)
Gordon took a decent sized step up in work in Week 3 when he rushed nine times for 38 yards and a touchdown. He took close to 50% of the team’s rushing carries and two of three goal line carries. If they can get a lead, he could see even more carries as the team would love to be able to keep Tua from turning the ball over.
