Halloween 2025 will go down as the Year of the Gummy for many candy lovers.
That’s because chocolate fans worldwide are paying record prices for their favorite sweet as a historic cocoa shortage and sticky inflation from tariffs squeeze confectionery makers.
This ripples through global supply chains and into consumers’ wallets.
So some households switched to non-chocolate candy for their trick-or-treat inventory.
There could be some relief in sight, but not in time for holiday menus that will include Thanksgiving pies, Christmas cookies, and hot chocolate for all.
Economists say the spike is driven by poor cocoa harvests, extreme weather, and surging production costs.
- Cocoa futures have jumped more than 150% in the past year, hitting $10,000 per metric ton in spring 2025.
- This is an all-time high, according to Intercontinental Exchange data.
West African climate woes cause the cocoa supply crunch
The surge in chocolate prices stems from a severe supply crunch in West Africa, where Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana produce nearly 70% of the world’s cocoa.
“The combination of bad weather, disease and aging trees has created the tightest cocoa market in decades,” said Michael Archer, senior commodities analyst at JPMorgan Chase. “Even if conditions improve, it could take years for output to recover.”
Flooding followed by drought has triggered black pod disease, cutting yields and pushing farmers to abandon aging trees.
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Ghana’s output fell nearly 30% last year, while Ivorian production is down more than 20%, according to government estimates.
“Cocoa trees don’t bounce back quickly,” said Geneva Ganes, a commodities strategist at Rabobank. “It takes about five years for new trees to mature, so there’s no quick fix for global supply.”
Fertilizer shortages, rising labor costs and limited access to credit have also reduced investment in farms. Many growers are switching to more profitable crops such as palm oil, deepening the cocoa deficit.
Big chocolate brands raise prices and shrink sizes
Major confectioners including Hershey, Mars, and Mondelez International have raised prices or reduced package sizes to offset soaring input costs.
The industry calls this “shrinkflation,” and it’s now common across supermarket shelves.
“The price of cocoa has more than doubled, and we’ve had to adjust our strategy,” Hershey CEO Michele Buck said in an April earnings call. “We’re focused on maintaining quality while managing affordability.”
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Retail data from NielsenIQ show U.S. chocolate prices up 12% year over year, with premium and dark chocolate seeing the steepest hikes.
Not even Cupid or the Easter Bunny were immune to this costly chocolate surge. Seasonal items for Valentine’s Day and Easter 2025 hit their highest prices on record.
Strong demand keeps chocolate sales up, despite inflation
Cocoa shortage notwithstanding, global demand hasn’t melted.
Sales in Asia and Latin America continue to grow, as rising incomes fuel new markets for sweets.
Analysts say chocolate’s emotional appeal keeps it resilient even as inflation pressures consumers.
“Chocolate has emotional staying power,” said GlobalData Retail Managing Director Neil Saunders. “People may buy smaller bars or trade down, but they’re not giving it up.”
Laura Raposa is the chef/owner of The Foodsmith, the acclaimed and beloved scratch bakery and cafe in Duxbury, Mass., an affluent waterfront town south of Boston.
Customers flock to her bakery’s counter for a daily fresh-baked array of scones, pastries and one of the biggest draws: huge chocolate chunk cookies that sell for $1.95.
“We have to have them every day. They’re a big seller,’’ Raposa said.
Raposa uses professional chocolate and cocoa products in all her products. “No offense to Nestle,” she said, “but we don’t use Toll House chips.”
For this reason, high wholesale prices coming down the supply chain are a very real part of her business.
Raposa is in the midst of creating a Thanksgiving catering menu and is concerned that this year’s pecan chocolate cream pie, a decadent delight made with California pecan halves and imported bar chocolate, will cost so much to make that she’ll need to retail the 9-inch pie at $40.
My clientele doesn’t really comment about price, at least to me. But at some point, people are going to say, ‘Um, no.’
Laura Raposa, chef/owner of The Foodsmith
Outlook: when chocolate prices could finally ease
Experts expect some relief in late 2026, assuming improved weather and new crop cycles. But with global cocoa inventories at record lows and El Niño weather patterns threatening new plantings, the road to balance may be long.
“The cocoa market will stay tight through mid-2026,” Archer said. “Even with better yields, the supply deficit will take years to unwind.”
Producers are investing in climate-resilient cocoa trees, new planting in Latin America, and sustainability programs to diversify their sourcing base.
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