Morning Report is The Hill’s a.m. newsletter. Subscribe here.
In today’s issue:
Taking stock of the midterms
Trump gets trade victory ahead of Xi meeting
Could disgust with Congress end the shutdown?
Nation braces for November elections
With just more than one year left before Election Day 2026, the race for control of the House seems to be a toss-up while the GOP has the advantage in holding on to the Senate.
Following next week’s elections in Virginia and New Jersey, which will be seen as indicators of the parties’ strength heading into 2026, the focus will quickly shift to the midterms, which will determine much about how the latter half of President Trump’s second term will play out.
Historic trends should benefit the Democrats in their race to win back a majority in the House. The party needs to net three seats to win the majority, and the president’s party has lost seats in the House in almost every midterm election in modern history.
In Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ) average of the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters if they plan to vote Democratic or Republican in the congressional election, Democrats lead by about 3 points. They’ve held a lead by varying amounts consistently in the polling index since June.
Generic ballot an indicator
While not an exact measure, the generic congressional ballot is seen as an indicator of which party is likely to win the House in the next election.
But Scott Tranter, director of data science for DDHQ, said he expects volatility to come with the generic ballot and considers the race for the House to be a toss-up.
“I think we’re going to see some volatility over the next few months on the generic ballot, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the average go down a couple of points and then pop back up,” he told Morning Report.
Mid-decade redistricting is looming over the House battle, as multiple states move to redraw their congressional district lines ahead of the midterms to try to win as many seats for one party as possible.
Texas, Missouri and North Carolina Republicans have already pushed through maps that are likely to net the GOP seats in next year’s elections. Democrats have responded to these efforts, with California proposing a ballot measure to allow the state Legislature to redraw its lines and net their party up to five seats next year.
But Republicans likely have a greater number of pickup opportunities through the redistricting process. A few other states are considering possible changes to their maps, though the total number of seats each party will gain through this process will likely remain murky for at least a few months.
Tranter said the best scenario for Democrats is for Republicans to only net four to six seats through this process, while the worst-case scenario is for the GOP to pick up 10 to 15 seats. And every seat could matter with the House so narrowly divided.
Tranter said Democrats are “certainly” in a better spot than they were months ago, but they likely still need to improve to be in a stronger position to retake the House.
“Plus 3 [percentage points in the generic congressional ballot] is pretty good for them, but you put the redistricting machinations in, plus 3 doesn’t look like it’ll be enough,” he said.
Senate an uphill battle for Democrats
Democrats have more of an uphill battle in trying to win the Senate, as Tranter gave them a 1 in 3 chance of winning back the majority in 2026.
Republicans have a 53-47 advantage, which would require Democrats to net four seats next year to take control of the chamber and avoid Vice President Vance serving as a tiebreaker vote. But Democrats are already defending seats in a few key battlegrounds they must hold on to to even have a chance.
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) is running for reelection next year in Georgia, which Trump won in 2024, while Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) is retiring, vacating a seat also in Trump-won Michigan. Democrats have a path to hold on to both seats, but they are likely to be highly competitive races.
The election handicapper Cook Political Report rates both races as “toss-up.”
Democrats also must flip the two most attainable Republican-held seats to have a chance at the majority. Sen. Susan Collins (R), a moderate who Democrats have failed to oust in the past, is running for another term in Maine, which has generally voted Democratic on the federal level.
But Collins has fended off past challenges, including in 2020 when she outperformed expectations significantly to easily win reelection.
Democrats are also hoping to flip a seat in competitive North Carolina, with former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) hoping to succeed retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R).
Even if all those states go well for Democrats, they will still need to flip two other states considered more of a reach.
The party is hopeful about top recruits who have launched candidacies, including former Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) faces a serious primary challenge, but these are major hurdles to overcome.
“They’re going to have to have more than one surprise, which is not impossible, but that’s not like they’ve got one race to win. They’ve got a couple races they got to surprise on,” Tranter said.
One possible positive sign for Democrats: A Gallup poll found Democrats leading in party identification by 7 points over Republicans, a shift from this time last year when Republicans led by 1 point.
Tranter said eyes should be on the next poll on this to determine if a trend is forming.
“Seven points is a lot of movement. It’s not impossible. But if the next reading comes in and it’s [Democrats] plus 4 to plus 7, I would say, we’ve got sort of a trend here,” he said.
Smart Take with Blake Burman
Stock market futures are well into the green following Sunday morning comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said there is a “very substantial framework” in place for some sort of trade deal with China, asPresident Trump and China’s Xi Jinping are set to meet face to face later this week.
While we don’t have details yet — and likely won’t until after the Trump-Xi meeting — the deal from the U.S. perspective appears to include getting China to back off rare earth export restrictions while also getting the country to buy soybeans from American farmers (which has totally stopped in recent months).
What’s striking with all this is the pace at which a framework has come about. In the first term, a deal took more than a year and a half to materialize. Again, we need the details to see the depth, but the speed this time around is a key difference from the first “trade war.”
Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6p/5c on NewsNation.
3 Things to Know Today
1. Senators are raising pressure on Trump over boat attacks. A number of senators in both parties are raising questions about the justification from the administration over a series of attacks on boats suspected of smuggling fentanyl into the United States.
2. President Trump is getting support for his decision to demolish the East Wing of the White House to build a ballroom from a somewhat surprising source: The Washington Post’s editorial board. “The White House cannot simply be a museum to the past. Like America, it must evolve with the times to maintain its greatness. Strong leaders reject calcification. In that way, Trump’s undertaking is a shot across the bow at NIMBYs everywhere,” the Post’s editorial board wrote on Saturday.
3. SNAP funding is set to expire. More than 40 million low-income food stamp beneficiaries could see their assistance run out in the coming days as the U.S. Department of Agriculture threatens to withhold billions of dollars in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) contingency funding. We look at the full debate here.
Leading the Day
TRUMP GETS TRADE VICTORY AHEAD OF XI MEETING: President Trump won’t meet Chinese President Xi Jinping until Thursday, but it appears that meeting will be significantly less intense after negotiators reached a deal on a framework trade agreement.
The deal would prevent 100 percent U.S. tariffs from being imposed on Chinese exports to the United States, something that would have almost certainly led to additional actions by China at a time when U.S. farmers are already losing access to that market.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hailed the deal during an appearance Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” and he also argued Trump’s threat of tariffs secured the deal.
“President Trump gave me a great deal of negotiating leverage with the threat of the 100 percent tariffs, and I believe we’ve reached a very substantial framework that will avoid that and allow us to discuss many other things with the Chinese,” Bessent said.
Bessent said Chinese negotiators had agreed to put off restrictions that were set to be imposed on exports of rare earth materials from China. These export controls would greatly limit U.S. access to critical materials used for a host of technologies, including electric cars and smartphones, but also more sophisticated technologies used for defense purposes.
It’s not entirely clear how long the export controls are being deferred, though Bessent said it would be for a year.
Bessent also said he’d made progress on another critical issue for U.S. farmers by gaining access for U.S. soybean exports from Beijing.
“Our soybean farmers will feel very good about what’s going on both for this season and the coming seasons for several years,” Bessent said.
Trump could use wins when it comes to trade, China and farmers, who have become increasingly critical of his policies.
U.S. cattle producers were notably critical of the president last week over his decision to quadruple beef imports from Argentina, part of a plan to help Argentinian President Javier Milei ahead of elections in his country.
Trump said he wanted to do so to lower the price of beef in the U.S. and help consumers dealing with inflation, but U.S. beef producers benefitting from the higher prices would be hurt by the increased Argentina imports at a time when they are also facing barriers to their exports amid the widening trade war.
“We love you and support you — but your suggestion to buy beef from Argentina to stabilize beef prices would be an absolute betrayal to the American cattle rancher,” Wyoming-based Meriwether Farms wrote in a post on the social platform X, addressing Trump.
— Ian Swanson
The Washington Post: “How Trump’s perception of Japan collides with today’s reality”
When & Where
The president is in Tokyo on Monday where he is meeting with the emperor. He is also set to meet new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
The Senate meets at 3 p.m. with votes at 5:30 p.m.
The House is out.
Zoom In
COULD DISGUST WITH CONGRESS END THE SHUTDOWN?: There’s no reason to question the disgust.
Poll after polls shows lawmakers are held in low esteem by voters, and as Alexander Bolton reports, the polls are getting worse.
A Gallup poll conducted during the first two weeks of October — which coincided with the first two weeks of the shutdown — found that Congress’s approval rating has sunk from a 26 percent approval rating to a dismal 15 percent over the past month.
Republicans are faring worse in the polls, perhaps because they control both chambers of Congress and the White House.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 4,385 U.S. adults published last week found that 50 percent of respondents blamed Republicans more while 43 percent blamed Democrats. And 51 percent of voters not affiliated with either of the major parties blamed Republicans while 34 percent blamed Democrats.
The Hill’s Emily Brooks looked at a number of polls that told a similar story for her article over the weekend discussing the GOP’s frustration that they are getting blame for a shutdown they feel should be the Democratic Party’s alone.
The Wall Street Journal: “The lone House Democrat who thinks his party has the shutdown all wrong”
The GOP’s argument for why the shutdown is the fault of Democrats is fairly simple. The House GOP has passed “clean” legislation that is described that way because it would extend existing funding at the same levels through the third week of November.
Democrats in the Senate have blocked that bill repeatedly. They argue the bill is “dirty” because it does not extend subsidies under the Affordable Care Act that are set to expire at the end of the year.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) showed his irritation with the blame game in comments last week that Brooks picked up on in her story.
“If the Republicans were responsible for this shutdown, that would lead the news in every mainstream media outlet every single night, it would be top fold of every newspaper, on the front page every single day,” Johnson said last week, asserting that the press was trying to “give cover to the Democrats who’ve caused this.”
“The American people are not stupid, and we’re in here every day appealing to their common sense and relating the facts,” Johnson added.
Voters aren’t dumb, but prominent GOP pollster Whit Ayres told Bolton that Republicans have to worry they’ll be hardest hit because they have control of both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue and thus will get credit or blame when bad or good things happen.
“What we’re seeing primarily is disgust with the system as a whole and a pox on both your houses,” Ayres said. “Most Americans can’t understand why the federal government can’t function effectively enough to pass a budget and keep the government open.”
Voters are likely to hear about more pain from the shutdown in the coming weeks as federal employees miss another paycheck. This is likely to take a toll on a number of public sector workers, including those helping keep the skies safe as air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration workers.
There were delays reported at major airports last week. Look for more of that in the future, and for voters to become more irritated with their bickering lawmakers.
One reason the shutdown is about to complete its fourth week is that politically, Republicans and Democrats alike think they are winning the battle for public opinion.
But behind the public statements, neither side can feel that confident.
Republicans are reading polls showing that more respondents are blaming them than Democrats.
And while Bolton writes that Democratic strategists say they have a “built-in” advantage in the blame game because their party is viewed as the pro-government party, the longer the shutdown drags on, the more their advantage dwindles.
“We still have an advantage but it’s not as great as the advantage we had at the beginning,” acknowledged Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.
— Ian Swanson
The Hill: ObamaCare sticker shock begins as open enrollment meets shutdown deadlock
Elsewhere
NATION BRACES FOR ELECTIONS NEXT WEEK: While gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, along with the New York City mayoral race featuring Zohran Mamdani opposing Andrew Cuomo, have drawn widespread attention, voters will weigh in on several other key issues and elections next week.
Here’s what else to keep an eye on as voters head to the polls:
California’s redistricting ballot measure
Californians will vote on a ballot measure to determine whether the state Legislature can redraw the state’s congressional lines for the rest of the decade in response to Republican-led states redrawing their lines. If the measure passes, the new map proposal could net Democrats up to five additional seats in next year’s midterms.
Limited polling has shown a majority of voters in favor of Proposition 50, backed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D).
Texas 18th Congressional District special election
A special election is being held to fill the seat vacated by the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas), who died in March.
A host of candidates are running in a nonpartisan blanket primary for the seat, including Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D), former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards (D) and state Rep. Jolanda Jones (D). If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the top two candidates will advance to a runoff.
The seat is strongly Democratic, so a Democrat should win the race and further narrow the Republican House majority.
Minneapolis mayoral election
Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey (D) is facing a challenge from the left as he seeks a third term in office. Minnesota state Sen. Omar Fateh (D) is considered the top of various challengers opposing Frey, running with the backing of the Democratic Socialists of America.
The race will be conducted through ranked-choice voting, in which voters can rank candidates in order of their preferences. The candidate with the fewest first-place votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed according to their voters’ next preference.
The process continues until one candidate wins a majority of the vote.
Polling has been sparse, but one poll from August from a group backing opponents of Frey found the incumbent mayor leading Fateh by 5 points, suggesting a potentially close race.
Seattle mayoral election
Mayor Bruce Harrell is trying to hold off a challenge from progressive community organizer Katie Wilson, who advanced to a runoff against the incumbent after an August primary.
Wilson stunned some observers by performing better than Harrell in the top-two primary, finishing about 9 points ahead of him. Harrell has sought to defend his progressive bona fides and expressed optimism about performing better in the general election.
But he’ll have to overcome progressive energy for Wilson, who picked up a key endorsement earlier this month from influential Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.).
Politico: “Inside the final stretch of New York’s wild mayoral race”
The Guardian: Newsom confirms he’s considering presidential run
The Hill: John Sununu nabs endorsements from group of GOP senators in New Hampshire Senate race
Opinion
This strategic mistake could swing the tariffs case at the Supreme Court, Jason Willick writes in The Washington Post
The AI bubble could pop the US and global economies, Nicholas Sargen writes in The Hill
The Closer
And finally … A D.C. demonstrator strikes back.
A man who was handcuffed after playing “The Imperial March” song from Star Wars while recording several National Guard members walking through the streets of Washington, D.C., has filed a lawsuit.
The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) filed the lawsuit on behalf of Sam O’Hara in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia last Thursday. An Ohio National Guard member and four D.C. police officers are named as defendants in the suit.
O’Hara played the song on his phone while recording the troops. According to the complaint, an Ohio National Guard member turned around and threatened to call the police to “handle” the demonstrator. D.C. police officers then arrived and handcuffed O’Hara, who was briefly held before being released without charges.
“The law might have tolerated government conduct of this sort a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away. But in the here and now, the First Amendment bars government officials from shutting down peaceful protests, and the Fourth Amendment (along with the District’s prohibition on false arrest) bars groundless seizures,” the complaint states.
