Here, we’ll look at quarterbacks who have dramatic splits when operating against man and zone coverage. Not only will this help us analyze how these quarterbacks are playing, but I can also combine what I know about each team's wide receivers and their ability to beat man and zone coverage based on my work charting for Reception Perception. We’ll be able to find some fantasy football values, spot trends and much more.
[Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge in player projections and much more]
Here are the details on how I arrived at the rankings and determined the splits:
Metrics: Average of the quarterback’s rankings in adjusted yards per attempt and EPA per dropback when facing man and zone coverage. The quarterbacks featured here have a double-digit gap in their ranking vs. man/zone.
Sample: 34 QBs to take 100-plus dropbacks. Note that I threw out some guys with significant splits who are just backups (Wentz, Russ, Jake Browning, etc).
QBs performing much better vs. man coverage
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
3rd vs. man
33rd vs. zone
It’s been a nightmare season for Tua Tagovailoa but he’s still been a hyper-effective quarterback when working man coverage. The problem is that his lack of anticipation and ability to drive the football through zones has really cratered, now that defenses have caught up to how to defend Miami’s middle-of-the-field passing concepts with his limitations. As effective as he’s been against man, you see how untenable it is to have a quarterback playing with this level of efficiency against zone. He’s sandwiched between rookie Cam Ward at 32nd and the now-benched Jake Browning at 34th in the vs. zone rankings.
Pass catchers this benefits: Jaylen Waddle is the only man-beater on the team after injuries. As long as Tua remains the starter, we can have confidence that he will at least get the football to Waddle, who has earned tremendous volume and been efficient since Tyreek Hill went down, despite last week’s blip.
Caleb Williams, Bears
3rd vs. man
21st vs. zone
Caleb Williams has been incredible at working man coverage this year. He’s at his best when he can get into a rhythm and put the ball to a spot. Some of his warts have shown up when he has to hit concepts that attack zone over the deep and intermediate levels of the field. There have been some positive, but not linear, signs of progress from Williams in this area so far this year.
Pass catchers this benefits: Rome Odunze has been a top performer against man coverage this season and that’s been the strength of his profile over the course of my time charting him. We should expect this duo to ascend together. I’m curious if the Bears can get some more layup throws in the offense against zone with guys like Luther Burden III earning more playing time over the course of the year.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
15th vs. man
28th vs. zone
If you’ve watched Jaguars football at all this year, you should have seen this one coming. Beyond Lawrence’s lack of consistent ball placement and sometimes questionable decision-making, Jags receivers have struggled working over the middle against zone coverage, particularly Brian Thomas Jr.
Pass catchers this benefits: Travis Hunter has shown over the last few weeks he’s the most consistent receiver working against zone and also is dangerous against man coverage. He should be more involved after the bye. However, BTJ is still at his best in one-on-one man coverage looks on out-breakers, so all hope isn’t lost there.
Bo Nix, Broncos
13th vs. man
24th vs. zone
Nix being placed here is another one that passes the sniff test. The only proven player in the Broncos' passing game from a volume standpoint is Courtland Sutton. The veteran receiver only lines up at X-receiver and has always been a better man-beater. The Nix-to-Sutton connection on digs and other big in-breakers vs. man coverage is crucial to this offense but the large split here indicates they need another dimension.
Pass catchers this benefits: I’d love to see someone else in this passing game truly emerge to complement Sutton. Troy Franklin has been the near full-time WR2 but has been shaky. Keep an eye on rookie Pat Bryant emerging as the big slot, which might level out some of Nix’s metrics against zone.
Jalen Hurts, Eagles
9th vs. man
19th vs. zone
Jalen Hurts has had dramatic splits against man and zone coverage throughout his entire time as the starter for the Eagles. That’s what made his excellent performance against the Vikings' zone-heavy defense last week all the more surprising. Philadelphia incorporating more under-center play action vertical shots could be a new wrinkle the team needs to level out these splits.
Pass catchers this benefits: A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith were the first- and second-best wide receivers I charted against man coverage last season for Reception Perception. Brown wasn’t playing to that level to start the year but has picked it up in the last two weeks. The ball should only continue to go their way, and don’t rule out Smith straight-up being better this season. He’s an excellent player and in his prime.
QBs performing much better vs. zone coverage
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
2nd vs. zone
24th vs. man
Mahomes has developed into a simply sublime quarterback at working zone coverage. He is patient when he needs to be, aggressive when the look is right and creates windows for himself. He’s playing at an MVP level right now. The only reason his man coverage numbers are lower is because he doesn’t have a consistent man-beater in the pass-catching department. He’s hit some key plays with nine scores against man but the completion percentage sits at 56%.
Pass catchers this benefits: I wrote about Rashee Rice’s return earlier this week and this stat only backs up how good he’s going to be the rest of the season. Rice is an elite zone coverage performer in Reception Perception and is weaponized underneath. I don’t think there are 10 receivers I’d rather have than him in fantasy the rest of the way.
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers
7th vs. zone
23rd vs. man
Admittedly, I don’t have a good theory for why Mayfield’s stats are worse against man coverage. Not having Mike Evans for most of the year doesn’t help, and his three fumbles when facing man might be overly impacting the results. I view this as a result that will level off because I think Mayfield has generally played good football this year, outside of a Monday night mess in Week 7 where he was consistently off the mark.
Pass catchers this benefits: Mayfield being so effective against zone coverage is good news for all of these pass-catchers. However, I’d note that Emeka Egbuka has been uniquely good for a rookie receiver at settling vs. zone coverage with proper timing. He’s a WR1 the rest of the way. Given his speed and precise cuts, fellow rookie Tez Johnson is also a better zone than man-beater. He’ll be on the flex radar with injuries to Evans and Chris Godwin Jr.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
4th vs. zone
18th vs. man
Being ranked 18th against man coverage is hardly a mark of shame for Prescott. Still, the split exits. Prescott has been fantastic this season and is operating a well-designed Cowboys offense to maximum capacity. My guess is that we’ll see his results against man coverage tick back up now that CeeDee Lamb is healthy. The elite wideout is a chore to cover in man from the slot.
Pass catchers this benefits: Continue starting and buying the Cowboys' main trio of pass-catchers; Lamb, George Pickens and Jake Ferguson are every-week starters at their position.
Michael Penix Jr., Falcons
13th vs. zone
31st vs. man
Michael Penix Jr. is still young in his NFL career, so it makes sense that he has clear strengths and weaknesses. He has the arm to rifle throws to the boundary against zone coverage that some passers would never dream of attempting. However, his spotty accuracy makes for some bad misses when the coverage is tighter and you’re throwing to a spot against man coverage. He’s completed just 46.5% of his passes against man this season.
Pass catchers this benefits: Drake London is a strong man coverage route runner and can also win in tight coverage. Penix’s best games have all overlapped with moments where they run the offense through London. There really isn’t another consistent one-on-one winner on this team. London needs to be the primary read far more often than he has been thus far.
QBs who are ballers vs. man and zone coverage (top 10 in both)
Lamar Jackson, Ravens
6th vs. man
3rd vs. zone
Just be healthy, Lamar Jackson. The season hasn’t been going the way Baltimore hoped, and the offensive line and defense have both been more of an issue than they were last year. However, when Jackson is playing at this level, the Ravens can compete no matter what.
Pass catchers this benefits: Zay Flowers was operating at a WR1 level the first few weeks of the season. While he may not hold a spot in the top 10, Flowers can be a high upside WR2 with a strong receptions-based floor. I’d also like to see Isaiah Likely and Rashod Bateman more involved out of the bye.
Jordan Love, Packers
9th vs. man
5th vs. zone
Love has quietly been fantastic since the Packers came off a bye in Week 5. He struggled when under pressure in the first few weeks but now that the line is a bit more settled, we’ve seen his best football — and that’s gone a little underdiscussed.
Pass catchers this benefits: With injuries rocking the Green Bay wide receiver room, we saw three Packers pass-catchers consolidate playing time in Week 7. All three of Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft and Matthew Golden ran a route on over 80% of the dropbacks. With that consistent playing time, you can chase the ceiling outcomes for all three with Love playing at this level.
Drake Maye, Patriots
6th vs. man
7th vs. zone
Drake Maye isn't just playing well, he hasn't just made the leap — Maye is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The Patriots starter is mixing down-to-down efficiency with a blend of big plays. It’s excellent to see. While the Patriots' easy schedule to date should be acknowledged, I’m still comfortable saying that he’s a QB1 the rest of the way, and he can bring guys along with him.
Pass catchers this benefits: Stefon Diggs is the lead receiver and an every-week starter with Maye taking this jump. You can also chase the supporting players in the right matchups too, when you need bye-week fillers. Kayshon Boutte got home for you in two favorable matchups in his previous couple of games to prove this point.
Daniel Jones, Colts
4th vs. man
9th vs. zone
Just like we all drew it up! The Colts offense is one of my favorite weekly watches. Daniel Jones is playing at a high level, and Shane Steichen’s system gives him an answer on every play. I don’t expect there to be a cloud of regression that rains down on this team at any point. This performance is real.
Pass catchers this benefits: In addition to Jones’ play and Steichen’s offense, it helps that the Colts are loaded with talented players. Most gamers are starting Michael Pittman Jr. already, while Tyler Warren and Jonathan Taylor are top-five options at their position. However, guys like Josh Downs and Alec Pierce deserve your attention. Downs is one of the most efficient wide receivers on a per-route basis; he just doesn’t play all the snaps because he’s a slot option. Meanwhile, Pierce has made the leap to being a steadier outside receiver. You can play these guys as flex options in the right spots.
Jared Goff, Lions
5th vs. man
10th vs. zone
The Lions may miss Ben Johnson in some specific instances but the offense has not fallen off without him. New OC John Morton has brought some new wrinkles to this team and it’s allowed the talent to still sing. Goff is as comfortable as ever pushing the ball over the middle. He and Amon-Ra St. Brown are off to a torrid start with their chemistry in 2025.
Pass catchers this benefits: If you’re looking for any Jameson Williams cope, this can be part of making you feel better. Goff has been excellent at all levels; Williams has just weirdly not been involved consistently. Given that he was signed to a deal north of $80 million right before the season, you’d have to imagine that changes.
