StubHub is on the radar of a big-time analyst, just as mobile and digital ticketing trends heat up.
Events and live experiences are bouncing back post-Covid. Amid this trend, StubHub brings a digital edge, making it unique among the many companies offering verified and secure resale platforms.
And that’s why a top Wall Street analyst is alerting investors regarding this tech-focused play.
Justin Post of Bank of America sent a new note to clients, pegging StubHub as a “high-growth asset” that is expected to outperform other online marketplaces. He gave it a buy rating, assigning a $25 price target, which is not bad, considering these are still early days in its history as a bona fide listed stock.
His call depends on the company’s move into direct ticketing, advertising, and exclusive sports agreements, all of which are expected to occur before the 2026 U.S. World Cup, a significant event worldwide.
StubHub’s growth engine is just getting started
StubHub, which launched in 2000 and currently controls around 50% of North America’s secondary ticket market, is spending a lot of money — over $900 million on sales and marketing — to maintain its dominance in the market.
Post thinks that spending will soon pay off, with EBITDA margins expected to more than quadruple by 2026 and long-term profits perhaps reaching 40%.
We expect growth to outpace online marketplace averages, but high expectations and lock-up expiration risk are near-term overhangs.
There are certain problems with the bullish case. Post highlights possible execution risks, notably around the company’s ambition to decrease costs while expanding, and says a lock-up expiration in the first quarter of 2026 might lead to selling pressure.
Post still thinks the setup is interesting, as the stock is selling at a discount to high-growth peers, and catalysts are forthcoming soon. But he says its next step might bring much more growth.
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Post notes that StubHub is starting a new phase that will turn it from a simple resale site into a bigger ticket and media platform.
The business is starting new programs that might greatly increase both profits and sales. And StubHub is big enough to make these risks worth it, unlike many of its smaller competitors.
Post highlighted several growth drivers for the company.
Key StubHub growth drivers:
- Direct Issuance: StubHub is partnering with teams and venues to issue tickets directly, capturing value earlier in the funnel.
- Sponsored Ads: An advertising business is being launched, with early signs pointing to a meaningful ramp in 2026.
- U.S. World Cup: With the global tournament coming stateside in 2026, Post expects a sharp rise in ticket demand that could lift StubHub’s entire ecosystem.
- Margin Expansion: As heavy marketing spend normalizes, Post sees operating leverage kicking in. He projects EBITDA margins could double by 2026 and approach 40% long-term.
- Brand Strength: Proprietary survey work shows StubHub leads on user experience and pricing perception among secondary platforms.
Post says these factors might help StubHub’s revenue expand “well above other internet marketplaces,” positioning it as a rare scalable growth name in online ticketing.
Why this analyst thinks StubHub stock is still undervalued
Despite its dominant position and new growth levers, StubHub’s current valuation leaves room to run — at least in Post’s view.
Bank of America’s $25 price target is based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis that puts the value of StubHub’s resale business at 10 times its 2026 EBITDA and its Direct Issuance division at two times its 2027 expected revenues.
That is an overall 11x multiple on 2026E EBITDA, which Post thinks is a safe bet, since the platform is projected to develop quickly.
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In contrast, online marketplaces with strong growth rates generally have multiples of 20 or more.
It suggests that investors may not be seeing StubHub’s full potential, at least not yet.
Still, Post is cautious to point out what may go wrong. StubHub has big plans for the future, but management needs to perform on all fronts, or the stock might go down.
Risks for StubHub stock:
- Execution risk: StubHub must scale direct ticketing and ads while tightening up spend— without losing share.
- Regulatory pressure: Pricing transparency laws and possible secondary market regulations could impact take rates.
- Lock-up expiration: Early shareholders will be free to sell in Q1 2026, potentially adding near-term volatility.
- Dynamic pricing disruption: Changes in primary market pricing could affect buyer behavior and demand.
In summary, Post thinks StubHub has the potential to be a big hit, but not without some problems. He said if the firm can deliver on even part of its goal, the market may need to adjust.
Why StubHub’s real test starts now
Wall Street now sees something greater happening with StubHub, which may have established its name on reselling.
Post thinks the firm is approaching a crucial stage, since new sources of income are growing and margins might widen in the future.
The $25 target means a potential upside of more than 30%. However, realizing this upside potential requires careful management of investor expectations and sharp execution.
StubHub’s narrative is no longer only about selling tickets. It’s about changing how events are sold, monetized, and delivered. That change is what has one of Wall Street’s most important voices leaning in.
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