The ongoing government shutdown is a symptom of a much larger dilemma facing the Democratic Party today. Locked out of power, lacking a unifying standard bearer, and struggling with historically low approval ratings, Democrats are facing a number of strategic challenges.
At the heart of Democrats’ dilemma is an inability to articulate their own path forward as they are steadfast in opposing Trump’s agenda but are not communicating their own credible and attractive alternative.
This “oppose at all costs” strategy has extended to the government shutdown. Although Democrats remain unified in their opposition, they are forgoing an opportunity to offer an issues-driven agenda of their own.
At the same time, Democrats’ belief that Republicans, as the party in power, would shoulder an outsized share of the blame appears to be less true than they hoped.
Fifty-eight percent blame Trump and Republicans, but 54 percent also blame Democrats, according to a poll by AP-NORC.
And although other polls, such as this one from The Economist/YouGov, show Democrats with a slightly bigger advantage, 39 percent of Americans blame the Republicans versus 33 percent blaming Democrats. That gap is marginal — hardly reassuring as the Democrats still struggle to offer an alternative vision.
Although the shutdown is emblematic of Democrats’ challenges, it goes deeper than that.
Indeed, as they elevate resistance politics above all else, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) have been unable to capitalize on growing disapproval of Trump’s handling of key issues like the economy and cost of living.
Although three-quarters of Americans say Trump is not focused enough on lowering costs, and 51 percent say his economic policies are making them worse off financially (per CBS News polling), Democrats’ economic messaging has been virtually nonexistent.
Of course, there is always the possibility that, as the shutdown continues, Americans come around to accept Democrats’ position, but the data are not promising.
Consider that while Democrats are framing their positions on the shutdown as being worth the costs of closing the government, that is out of line with what Americans want.
According to the above Economist/YouGov survey, most Americans want our elected officials to compromise (64 percent) rather than stand on principle and risk a shutdown (34 percent).
In that same vein, a considerable share of the electorate does not at all feel strongly about the issue Democrats have placed at the heart of the shutdown — the extension of health care subsidies.
According to AP-NORC polling, 43 percent of U.S. adults support Democrats’ position of extending the credits. But virtually the same number (42 percent) have no opinion on the matter, while another 12 percent oppose extending the credits. Similarly, only 48 percent of Democratic voters believe their party’s position is worth shutting down the government, according to CBS News.
Quite simply, Democrats’ current strategy is not meeting voters where they are.
Further, voters are seemingly giving Trump higher marks than Congressional Democrats over the shutdown — a potentially ominous sign given, the influence the president will likely wield in the upcoming midterm elections.
The aforementioned Economist/YouGov poll showed that Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the shutdown more than Democrats’ by a 10-point margin (35 percent to 25 percent).
Worse still, it appears that Democrats’ struggles to articulate an issues-driven agenda has contributed to a dangerous dichotomy that the Wall Street Journal noted months ago. To be specific, although voters are unhappy with Trump and his handling of critical issues, they still trust Democrats even less. A recent poll from Navigator Research reveals that while voters blame Republicans over Democrats for the shutdown by an 11-point margin, but Republicans still have a 2-point lead on the question of whom voters trust to handle the cost of living.
Likewise, Politico reported a survey showing that although voters “impugned Republicans more than Democrats by 6 points” for the shutdown, they also gave Republicans “a 4-point advantage on trust to handle the economy.”
Taken together, it’s clear that, as Democrats dig in and use political capital to oppose Trump, the lack of a true agenda means they’re not seeing any meaningful improvement in their political fortunes.
To that end, the path forward for Democrats must begin with spending less time resisting for the sake of resistance and more spent on figuring out how they can best make their case to voters.
Make no mistake, this does not mean Democrats should roll over and let Trump steamroll them with his agenda. Democrats need to be able to fight for issues at the core of the party, such as protecting social security, and Medicare.
However, no progress can be made on these or other issues unless and until Democrats begin addressing these challenges with an agenda of their own, rather than merely resisting Trump and Republicans’ agenda.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”
