Elon Musk’s 2025 has been rocky to say the least.
For starters, it’s EV behemoth in Tesla (TSLA) continues to battle slowing EV demand, as price cuts clip away at margins, with a stock that’s proven incredibly volatile.
Wall Street, on the flipside, has cheered Tesla’s record 9.6 GWh energy storage deployments, but continues fretting over uneven delivery numbers and the heavy lifting still needed in robotaxis.
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Against this backdrop, Musk just made a rare and telling move, which investors are already dissecting as a fresh signal of where Tesla stock heads next.
Following its summer rebound, the stock is up over 24% in three months, and this catalyst could add new wind to its sails.
Elon Musk’s $1 billion Tesla buy shakes up the market
Elon Musk disclosed a rare open-market buy of Tesla stock, at roughly 2.57 million shares for nearly a whopping $1 billion.
A Form 4 posted Monday, September 15, showed trades executed Friday, September 12, between $372 and $396 per share. Following the news, Tesla’s stock just 7% in premarket on Monday.
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The buy landed just days after Tesla’s board floated a new 2025 CEO Performance Award, worth more than $1 trillion if stretch goals are met. These goals are linked to Tesla’s stock market cap and operating milestones over the next decade.
Additionally, it also underscores Musk’s commitment to cementing Tesla’s control as it leans harder into autonomy, robotaxis, and AI.
It’s a massive turn from Musk’s 2021–2022 selling spree of close to $40 billion in Tesla stock in acquiring Twitter, now X. That history makes the current purchase arguably his largest disclosed open-market buys.
Founder-CEO insider buys are naturally a read on a stock’s confidence signals. For perspective, press tallies put Musk’s holdings (ex-options) at 413 million shares, reinforcing its alignment with long-term value creation as the company enters its autonomy phase.
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This also comes when Tesla stock rallies and pivots hard into AI, robotaxis, and next-gen manufacturing. For investors, the important bit is to determine whether this sparks renewed momentum beyond a short-term pop.
Tesla stock steady, but Musk bets future on robots and robotaxis
Tesla stock has been rallying of late, having surged close to 24% in the past three months alone.
Moreover, in the past six months, it has been up almost 60%, but in the past 12 months, it has seen its shares slide from highs near $489 before rebounding to $396 in mid-September 2025. That leaves the stock roughly flat year-over-year, but 20%–25% above the lows.
As we look ahead, Elon Musk seems mostly clear about the next big growth catalysts for Tesla stock.
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He recently said “80% of Tesla’s future value will come from Optimus”, the humanoid robot unit, which he deems as a massive major shift beyond cars and energy.
On autonomy, Musk touted the importance of Tesla’s Robotaxi pilot in Austin with safety monitors and the expansion to the Bay Area and other U.S. cities as critical drivers. Also, his proposed $1 trillion pay package is tied directly to delivering on Optimus sales, Robotaxi deployment, and growing Tesla’s colossal AI footprint.
These matters because, for instance, Robotaxi adoption can potentially shift Tesla’s model from car sales to services, and energy storage could offer recurring cash flow, and next-gen platforms will be critical for margin defense as global EV competition grows.
Which catalysts could move the needle next?
- FSD / Robotaxi service ramp in Austin and new markets
- Energy storage scales with record GWh deployments
- Next-gen vehicle platform (Cybercab, cost-cutting, and structural batteries)
Related: Veteran tech analyst drops unexpected verdict on Apple stock
