We have reached — roughly — the halfway point of the 2025 NFL season.
We’ll be honest, the 17-game schedule is still taking some getting used to.
Today, we are looking at the six teams that have surprised us (complimentary) and really surprised us (derogatory) through eight weeks of the season.
Indianapolis Colts
When the 2025 NFL season began the Indianapolis Colts were listed with an over/under of 7.5 wins.
With one victory the Colts will hit the over, and we have not even reached Halloween.
It is safe to say that the Colts might be the biggest surprise of the 2025 season to date, as Indianapolis enters Week 9 with a 7-1 record, tops in the NFL. Yes Daniel Jones is gathering the headlines, as he won the training camp battle with Anthony Richardson and is among the league’s best at the quarterback position through eight weeks. He ranks third in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (8.42), second in QBR (79.3) and leads the league with a success rate of 56.3%.
But the bigger story might be Jonathan Taylor. The running back is putting up MVP-worthy numbers, as Taylor’s 850 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns both lead the league.
Looking ahead, the Colts have games with the Chiefs and Seahawks remaining, as well as their season series with the Texans. So things could get sporty for Indianapolis down the stretch. But right now? They’re the toast of the league.
New England Patriots
Prior to the season the Patriots were listed with an over/under of 8.5 wins, so New England sitting on six victories as October draws to a close is not a complete shock.
But it is how they arrived at those six wins that might be the biggest surprise.
A win over the Buffalo Bills — on the road on Sunday Night Football — showed the NFL world that the Patriots might be for real. However, their win over the Cleveland Browns, and that staunch defense, last week might have been their biggest test yet. Drake Maye has put up MVP-level numbers, ranking fourth in the NFL in ANY/A, third in the league in QBR, and leading the way in both Adjusted Yards per Attempt and NFL Passer Rating.
And if you want more shameless Maye propaganda, look where he ranks in “Quarterback Efficiency” from RBSDM, which examines both Expected Points Added and Completion Percentage Over Expected:
Expect this trend to continue, given New England’s schedule to close out the year. Their toughest games remaining are a trip to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers, a home date with the Bills, and a trip to the Inner Harbor to take on the Baltimore Ravens in mid-December.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs were already a decent team entering this season, but in 2024 it felt more like they made it to the playoffs by default with their 10-7 record, rather than truly dominating — because the NFC South is terrible like that. Things changed this year, and now Tampa Bay is legitimately one of the best teams in the NFC, potentially the NFL.
Reaching 6-2 in the first half of the season is impressive in its own right, but it’s even more remarkable when you consider the difficulty of the schedule Tampa Bay has faced to open the year. In their eight games they’ve faced five legitimate playoff teams in Houston, Philadelphia, Seattle, San Francisco, and Detroit — losing their only two games to the Eagles and Lions. It’s nothing to sneeze at when you’re competing with teams of that caliber, and their game against the Super Bowl champs came down to a single score.
Baker Mayfield is playing MVP-caliber football for the Bucs this season, marrying his deep ball moxie with a distinct lack of turnovers. Pair that with a bend-don’t-break defense and it’s ensuring that every game is close for Tampa.
It’s certainly fair to wonder if the Bucs can keep this up without Mike Evans who went on IR, but this team has shown depth and the ability to scheme around its deficiencies in the past.
Seattle Seahawks
It’s hard to believe this worked out as well as it did. The Hawks made a bold move in the offseason to jettison Geno Smith and sign Sam Darnold to a massive contract, and it really felt like this was going to blow up in their faces. Chasing the same kind of success Mayfield was having in Tampa Bay, Seattle went all-in on Darnold and it was really unclear whether or not he could succeed without receivers like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Darnold isn’t just succeeding, he’s thriving. So much so that he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season.
Sitting at 5-2, the Seahawks are the best team in the NFC West by a large margin. They boast not just a Top 5 scoring offense in the league this year, but a really stingy Mike Macdonald defense which is also Top 10 in points allowed. You’re going to win a lot of games whenever you have that kind of positive scoring disparity.
It’s certainly fair to question the limited competition Seattle has faced thus far, but simply thriving with Darnold under center make the Seahawks one of the biggest surprises of the season.
Baltimore Ravens
Now this is a bad kind of surprise. Obviously any team would struggle without its franchise quarterback, but you don’t expect a team with the Ravens’ pedigree to completely implode the second Lamar Jackson is out of the lineup.
Jackson went down hurt and the Ravens completely forgot their identity. Derrick Henry hasn’t been running the ball nearly as effectively, Cooper Rush was a disaster at QB, and now they’ve pivoted to Tyler Huntley and gotten better — but it might be too little, too late. We’d expect a team like the Bengals and Zac Taylor to struggle without Joe Burrow, but John Harbaugh has the reputation as one of the best coaches in the NFL.
Defensively might be the biggest surprise. Baltimore is 30th in the NFL in points allowed, while also being 28th against the pass and 23rd against the run. The struggles on defense are wholly uncharacteristic from a Ravens team, and for the first time in a long, long time, the Ravens don’t have that edge.
Even if Lamar comes back and turns around the offense, it’s unclear if the defense can be good enough to make anything happen this season.
Arizona Cardinals
Before the season began, the Cardinals were listed with an over/under of 8.5 wins.
That under could cash before Thanksgiving.
After winning their first two games, Arizona has fallen off a cliff. The Cardinals have lost five straight games, and with their only two victories coming against New Orleans and Carolina, this is not a solid resume for a team. Making that resume worse is the fact Arizona lost to Tennessee in brutal, almost hilarious, fashion, to give the Titans their only win of the season.
Kyler Murray has dealt with both injury struggles and a lack of production on the field, as his ANY/A of 4.72 ranks him 29th in the NFL, behind both Carson Wentz and Joe Flacco. Marvin Harrison Jr. has endured an up-and-down season, and without James Conner, who suffered a season-ending foot injury in Week 3, the Cardinals’ rushing game has cratered. Arizona is averaging 110.4 yards per game on the ground (20th in the NFL) and looking at their EPA/Rush, the Cardinals are near the bottom of the league:
With some tough games remaining (Arizona has to play the Rams twice as well as the Seahawks, 49ers, and Buccaneers) it is hard to see the Cardinals making a second-half run.
